美國的城市會成為下一個武漢么?

“如果幸運的話或許可以。”

近日，《衛(wèi)報》刊發(fā)美國兩位科學(xué)家——蕾妮·C·沃思博（Renee C Wurth）與尼克·歐布拉多維奇（Nick Obradovich）的聯(lián)合署名文章。文章中，《衛(wèi)報》編輯大寫加粗標(biāo)出了這樣一句話：學(xué)習(xí)武漢經(jīng)驗是我們防止國家陷入歷史性災(zāi)難的唯一辦法。

 

 

開篇，兩位作者旗幟鮮明地亮出了自己的觀點：現(xiàn)如今，一個選擇題擺在我們面前。我們可以學(xué)習(xí)武漢近期的經(jīng)驗，學(xué)習(xí)中國應(yīng)對冠狀病毒的經(jīng)驗。或者我們重蹈覆轍，重演1918年大流感的悲劇。

If we don't learn from history, we're doomed to repeat it. 
Today we have a choice. We can learn from the recent past – from the experience of Wuhan, China's fight against the coronavirus – or we can repeat the distant past, ending up with a pandemic reminiscent of the 1918 Spanish flu.

文章認(rèn)為，美國的處境很危險，唯有像中國一樣迅速采取措施，少玩一些華而不實的政治游戲才能自救。

盡管目前武漢新冠病毒確診病例數(shù)最多，但如果我們美國沿著現(xiàn)在的道路繼續(xù)向前，在應(yīng)對大流感的過程中，蓄意不設(shè)防、 做一些徒有其表的攀比、搞政治活動、猶豫不決、治理無能，那么我們只有最幸運的城市才能跟武漢有可比性。

 

迅速從武漢經(jīng)驗中學(xué)習(xí)，是阻止我們國家陷入歷史性災(zāi)難的唯一途徑。

 

Though Wuhan has had the most cases of the coronavirus so far, if we continue much further along our national path of purposeful unpreparedness, specious comparisons, politicking, hesitation and ineptitude in our response to the pandemic, only our most lucky cities will be comparable to Wuhan.

 

Learning from Wuhan's recent past – and rapidly acting on those lessons – is the only way we can prevent our nation from driving itself into a historic catastrophe.

為何中國經(jīng)驗是行之有效的？

文中的兩位筆者先進(jìn)行了數(shù)據(jù)分析。

武漢有1100萬人，累積確診病例有6.7萬，占總?cè)丝诘?.6%。盡管在疫情期間獲得準(zhǔn)確的數(shù)據(jù)很難，但經(jīng)世界衛(wèi)生組織(WHO)的實地考察報告證實，該市的數(shù)據(jù)是可信的。

In a city of nearly 11 million, Wuhan's approximately 67,000 cases amount to just 0.6% of its population. And despite the difficulty of obtaining accurate data amid the crisis, the World Health Organization (WHO)ground reports verify the numbers coming out of the city as credible. Given the (relatively high) estimated rates of transmissibility of this virus, how did Chinese officials in Wuhan keep it from spreading more rapidly?

這種病毒的傳播率相對較高，中國官員是如何阻止它進(jìn)一步快速傳播的呢?兩位筆者進(jìn)行了深入的分析。在最早期階段，武漢地方政府應(yīng)行動遲緩，導(dǎo)致病毒未能有效控制給現(xiàn)代醫(yī)療造成很大壓力。從武漢考察后，世界衛(wèi)生組織的官員得出結(jié)論：這種病毒可以無癥狀傳播，使其傳播率最大化。

但當(dāng)如狼似虎的病毒要蔓延到中國其它城市時，中國政府采取了嚴(yán)密的社會隔離措施，與此同時，免費提供病毒檢測，試圖減緩病毒傳播。

As soon as it was clear that the virus was swamping healthcare in Wuhan and threatening to engulf China more broadly, the Chinese government implemented radical social distancing measures, coupled with abundant free testing, attempting to slow the virus's spread.

為控制疫情，1月23日，武漢宣布關(guān)閉所有離漢通道。

對外交通停運，停止公共交通和駕駛，強(qiáng)制戴口罩，取消社交聚會，要求居家隔離——這些隨即被證明不足以阻止病毒的蔓延。

Yet, even these social distancing measures – stopping outbound transportation, stalling public transit and driving, implementing mandatory mask-wearing, cancelling social gatherings, and requiring home quarantines – proved insufficient to halt the expansion of the virus.

后來，中國政府進(jìn)一步采取了大膽的措施。

文章稱，2月1日，武漢轉(zhuǎn)為了集中隔離。這一舉措至關(guān)重要，事后被證明有效阻止了病毒向一小部分群體繼續(xù)擴(kuò)散。

Then, on 1 February, Wuhan switched to centralized quarantine, a decision that research has shown was essential in containing the spread of the virus to such a small portion of the city's population.

作者認(rèn)為，原本事態(tài)會非常惡劣。中國官員當(dāng)時的果斷行動，挽救了數(shù)萬人的生命。這座城市的封鎖政策為世界其它地區(qū)戰(zhàn)勝病毒提供了寶貴的信息和時間。

Still, it could have been much, much worse. Chinese officials saved tens of thousands of lives by acting as decisively as they did, when they did. And the city's path to containment has provided invaluable information and time for the rest of the world to get ahead of the virus.

 

 

△無干預(yù)狀態(tài)下，病情傳播曲線陡然升高；而圍堵干預(yù)策略下，曲線平穩(wěn)走低。

中國經(jīng)驗對美國的指導(dǎo)意義是什么？

在美國，我們否認(rèn)、淡化、拖延。沒有實質(zhì)性的跡象可以表明，美國愿意采取根本措施來減緩病毒的傳播。

In the US, we're following...strategy of deny, downplay and delay without substantial indication that we'll be willing to take the radical measures necessary to slow the spread of the virus.

不作為的每一天都增加了我們的醫(yī)療系統(tǒng)被這種長期疾病壓垮的可能性。如果我們現(xiàn)在不行動，我們很快就會問：誰的命更值錢？美國大多數(shù)人都處于危險之中，我們沒有時間可以浪費。

Each day of inaction increases the probability our healthcare systems become overwhelmed by the long-lasting sickness. If we don't act now, we'll soon be asking: whose life is worth more? With the majority of the nation at risk, we have no time to waste.

社會、公民和政府是時候統(tǒng)一行動了——包括在所有“社區(qū)傳播”地區(qū)立即和強(qiáng)制性實行社會隔離，配套建立一些大規(guī)模的隔離區(qū)�，F(xiàn)在是時候?qū)W習(xí)武漢經(jīng)驗了。

Now is the time for unified dramatic social, civic and governmental action – including immediate and mandatory social distancing in all areas with demonstrated community spread coupled with mass-scale quarantines. It's time to follow the good part of the Wuhan playbook.

中國把對抗病毒比作戰(zhàn)爭，動員全民抗疫。這是恰當(dāng)?shù)摹７駝t，我們進(jìn)一步逃避的代價將是，數(shù)十萬我們所愛之人的死亡。

China used the analogy to war to mobilize its people's response to the virus. It's apt. The cost of further avoidance will be measured in the hundreds of thousands of ugly deaths of our loved ones.

我們沒有人真正目睹過1918年的悲劇，我們可以想象中國政府如果沒有在武漢采取行動，會發(fā)生多么可怕的事情。幾個月前，我們都目睹了這場危機(jī)的開始，我們擔(dān)心我們中的許多城市可能會像武漢一樣糟糕。

Very few of us were alive to see the devastation of 1918, and we can only imagine the horrors of what could have happened had Wuhan not acted as they did. As we both watched this crisis start to unfold months ago, we worried that we might be on course for many of US cities to be as bad as Wuhan.

今天，我們意識到了：如果能成為武漢，我們將是幸運的。

Today we realize: we would be lucky to be Wuhan.

如果一個多月前，西方愿意認(rèn)真研究中國經(jīng)驗，并采取行動，結(jié)果會是怎樣？

《紐約時報》：
中國為西方國家贏取了時間
而他們卻白白浪費了

一個月前，一些人在干什么？
一個月前，世界衛(wèi)生組織點名表揚中國，認(rèn)為中國采取行動時勇敢、靈活、迅速。西方媒體直接挑釁發(fā)問稱：“中國是否向世衛(wèi)組織施壓，要求你們表揚中國？”
一個多月前，西方主流媒體《華爾街日報》忙著刊發(fā)文章，詆毀中國政府和中國人民抗擊疫情的努力，并寫上了《中國是真正的“亞洲病夫”》這種帶有種族歧視色彩的聳人聽聞標(biāo)題。

疫情爆發(fā)后，西方以隔岸觀火的心態(tài)看中國，認(rèn)為遠(yuǎn)火與自己無關(guān)。

“當(dāng)時中國是在全力抗擊一個突如其來的可怕病毒，而西方國家提前幾周就已經(jīng)收到警告了。”

...while China had to contend with a nasty, sudden surprise, governments in the West have been on notice for weeks.

3月13日，《紐約時報》發(fā)布一篇評論員文章問：為什么這么多國家在過去數(shù)周時間眼睜睜地看著疫情蔓延，好像和他們沒關(guān)系似的？

 

《紐約時報》評論員寫道，他的經(jīng)歷和事實都表明，西方國家無視了中國的經(jīng)驗教訓(xùn)，失去了抗擊疫情的最佳時機(jī)。

The attitude toward the coronavirus outbreak in the United States and much of Europe has been bizarrely reactive, if not outright passive — or that the governments in those regions have let pass their best chance to contain the virus's spread.

在全球疫情的危機(jī)時刻
中國選擇了毫無保留

北京時間12日凌晨，世界衛(wèi)生組織宣布：新冠肺炎疫情的爆發(fā)已經(jīng)構(gòu)成一次全球性“大流行”。這意味著疫情波及范圍已相當(dāng)廣泛。12日下午3點，中國開了一次特殊的跨國會議，兩個小時的會議中，話題事無巨細(xì)，分享中國經(jīng)驗。

在全球疫情的危機(jī)時刻，中國選擇了毫無保留，中國急世界之所急。
如今，全球需要的是并肩作戰(zhàn)，敵人是病毒。希望西方部分媒體少些偏見，多一些互鑒。